Poverty grew to 32% and reaches 12,950,000 people

During 2018, poverty increased from 25.7% to 32% of the urban population. 2,650,000 new poor were added in one year and total 12,950,000 people.

Of this total, the extreme poverty or indigence grew from 4.8 to 6.7% -about 800,000 more destitute- equivalent to 2,700,000 indigent, according to the INDEC data projected at the urban country level.

The official measurement does not include the rural population. If 32% were also applied to the rural sector, there would be 14,000,000 poor people.

The results of two key variables for the future behavior of poverty: employment and activity were also published yesterday. The first fell 2.1% in January and the GDP 5.7%. Both in January.

The Ministry of Labor and Production reported that 38,400 registered jobs were lost, with a drop of 262,400 employed in relation to January 2018. And wages accumulate in 12 months a loss of 11.5% in relation to inflation.

The Indec, for its part, reported that the monthly economic activity (GDP) estimator fell by 5.7% year-on-year in January, although on the other hand it showed an advance in monthly terms: there are two consecutive months of month-to-month growth.

Yesterday’s poverty report shows that among children under 14 years old it increased from 39.7% to 46.8%. This means that of the total number of children under the age of 14 -8,900,000-, 4,170,000 live in poor households. In relation to a year ago, there are 700,000 new poor boys. And of these numbers, children living in indigent households because they have incomes below the basic food basket rose from 7.6 to 10.9%.

The Buenosairean conurbano returned to stand out with a raises of the poverty from 29.5% to 35.9%. It increased from 3,542,639 to 4,356,189 poor people. Of those numbers, indigence increased from 6.2 to 8.5 percent and already reaches 1,031,257 people. Thus of the 2,650,000 new poor, 700,000 were generated in the first half of last year and 1,950,000 in the second part of the year. The same happened with indigence, 70,000 average between January and June and 730,000 average between July and December.

In any case, if the second semester is broken down, between July and September poverty was 28.1% and between October and December 35.9%, according to economist Claudio Lozano, based on EPH of INDEC.

The INDEC report highlights that the gap between the income of the poor population and the value of the poverty basket was extended from 35.5% to 38.9%. That is to say, that the poor now need to have more income to overcome the poverty line.

In the first three years of the government’s administration there are 1,700,000 new poor people. In 2015, “starting point with which they should evaluate my management”, Macri had said, poverty was 29% -11,250,000 poor- according to CEDLAS and 29.2% according to the Observatory of the UCA.

Due to lack of confidence in official statistics between 2007 and 2015, the INDEC clarifies that “given that, according to the statistical emergency, the INDEC has ordered that the series published after the first quarter of 2007 and up to the fourth quarter of 2015, they should be considered with reservations. As of April 2016, the INDEC initiated a new series of poverty and for the second quarter of 2016 measured a poverty of 32.2%, equivalent to 12,550,000 poor people. Thus the current 32% is the second largest poverty mark during the current administration, but due to the growth of the urban population there are 400,000 more poor people.

Alexander Baker

Alexander Baker

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